← AI Cost Watch

Reference · guidance reviewed October 14, 2026

Know your models.

“Which model should I use?” feels arbitrary because nobody explains what actually separates them. Here are the seven axes that do — in plain terms — so you can tell a real difference from a brand name.

1

Quality tier

The single biggest split — and the one the calculator runs on.

Scruuge uses tier labels to organize its calculator baseline. They are heuristic bands, not measured task accuracy. Whether a cheaper model is suitable depends on your acceptance criteria, failure costs, and review process. Test those before switching.

2

Price — input vs output

Read input and output rates separately.

Input and output tokens can have different prices. Multiply each rate by its own billed token count, then add cache writes, cache reads, and tool charges where applicable. A short prompt followed by a long answer can have a very different bill from a long document followed by a short extraction.

See: Model Routing →
3

Token efficiency (tokens-to-answer)

The rate matters. So does how much gets billed.

Tokenizers, reasoning, answer length, retries, and repeated context all affect billed usage. Compare cost per accepted result, including failed attempts and review time. Equal token counts are useful for an arithmetic illustration; they are not proof that two models finish the same work for the illustrated price.

See: Open source isn't automatically cheaper →
4

Speed (tokens/sec)

Measure the wait your user actually experiences.

Time to first token and time to a complete result are different measures. Both can vary with provider, load, prompt length, and reasoning settings. Check latency on representative requests; a listed throughput figure does not establish response time for your application.

See: Intelligence per dollar →
5

Context window

A capacity limit is not a promise of reliable recall.

The context window limits how much a request can contain. Verify input and output limits, long-prompt price thresholds, and whether the model finds the details your task needs. Sending more history adds billed input unless a documented cache discount applies; a larger advertised window alone does not establish better results.

6

Architecture (dense vs MoE)

Parameter counts do not tell you the API bill.

Dense and mixture-of-experts designs use computation differently. That matters when serving models yourself, alongside hardware, utilization, and operations. For a hosted API, use the provider's actual rates and billed usage. Neither total nor active parameter count establishes task quality or customer pricing.

7

What it's actually good at

Code and math ≠ creative ≠ judgment.

Evaluate the task you actually have: runnable code, accurate extracted fields, or a draft that meets your editorial requirements. Include difficult cases and the consequences of errors. Provider capability descriptions and external benchmarks can help choose candidates; they do not replace acceptance checks on your workload.

See: the Cost Engineering Playbook →

What to test, and when to stay.

Documentation reviewed 2026-10-14. Workload testing is still pending. No model evaluation calls were made. Calculator rankings remain provisional.

Rates below are USD per million input/output tokens. Router prices are a dated OpenRouter catalog observation; direct-provider terms are labeled separately. Contract rates, reasoning, caching and retries can change the bill.

Claude Opus: Test on difficult work.

Baseline: anthropic/claude-opus-4.8
Candidate: anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
Direct API identifier: claude-opus-5-5

The captured OpenRouter rate falls from $5/$25 to $4/$20 per million input/output tokens. This supports a cost test, not a quality promotion.

Check thinking-block handling and tool compatibility before migration. Actual billed tokens, retries and accepted results can change.

Still needs testing: code-generation, content-creation, agent-automation.

Sources: opusopenrouter

Claude Sonnet: Prioritize a migration test.

Baseline: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6
Candidate: anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5
Direct API identifier: claude-sonnet-5-5

The captured OpenRouter rate falls from $3/$15 to $2/$10. Retain 4.6 until your acceptance checks pass; Batch remains an option for delay-tolerant work.

5.5 changes thinking controls and rejects forced tool calls and non-default sampling settings. Lower token rates do not guarantee a lower cost per completed task.

Still needs testing: code-generation, customer-support, agent-automation.

Sources: sonnetclaude-migrationopenrouter

GPT Sol: Test compatibility; do not promise base-rate savings.

Baseline: openai/gpt-5.6-sol
Candidate: openai/gpt-6.1-sol
Direct API identifier: gpt-6.1-sol

Both captured OpenRouter models list $2/$10. OpenAI's direct 5.6 page lists $4/$20, so direct-provider savings must not be applied to the router baseline.

6.1 requires Responses for tool calling and does not support reasoning effort none or minimal. Direct standard rates are $2/$10, with $0.10 cached reads and $2.50 writes; prompts above 272K incur higher rates.

Still needs testing: code-generation, agent-automation, data-extraction.

Sources: gptgpt-oldopenrouter

DeepSeek V: Test the actual provider and token mix.

Baseline: deepseek/deepseek-v3.2
Candidate: deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash
Direct API identifier: deepseek-flash

Router input falls from $0.259 to $0.02016, but output rises from $0.80 to $0.891 per million tokens. Equal-token arithmetic favors 4.1 only below about 2.62 output tokens per input token.

Direct deepseek-flash is a mutable alias with peak/off-peak billing. Do not substitute direct rates for router rates. Verify reasoning, tool behavior, region and billed usage.

Still needs testing: data-extraction, customer-support, agent-automation.

Sources: deepseekopenrouter

Qwen Flash: Stay for short-prompt price; test for a capability need.

Baseline: qwen/qwen3.7-flash
Candidate: qwen/qwen3.8-flash
Direct API identifier: qwen3.8-flash

Router list rates rise from $0.03/$0.13 to $0.15/$0.47. Alibaba's Singapore pricing also favors 3.7 for short prompts; 3.8 can be cheaper above 256K input tokens.

Region, prompt length and thinking mode matter. Batch and web-search availability differ by deployment. The older-model advantage here is price, not measured quality.

Still needs testing: data-extraction, report-generation, virtual-assistant.

Sources: qwenqwen-capabilitiesopenrouter

Gemini Flash: Test for multimodal requirements; retain the cheaper baseline if it works.

Baseline: google/gemini-2.5-flash
Candidate: google/gemini-3.8-flash
Direct API identifier: gemini-3.8-flash

Captured router rates rise from $0.30/$2.50 to $0.75/$3.75. Google's direct standard 3.8 pricing is temporary: $1.50/$7.50 is scheduled for January 1, 2027.

3.8 accepts audio, image, video and PDF inputs but produces text. Recheck the price deadline and thinking settings. No evidence here shows it beats 2.5 on your task.

Still needs testing: data-extraction, report-generation, medical-scientific.

Sources: geminigemini-capabilitiesopenrouter

Keep the evidence with the decision.

The saved evaluation suite has exact-output checks and human rubrics. None have completed results for these comparisons. Test real work and difficult cases; record prompts, exact model IDs, settings, costs, retries and acceptance decisions.

Retain the older model when it meets your requirements at lower total cost. Historical samples keep their original dates and model labels. A single successful example does not prove general superiority.

Review edition: 2026-10-14.recommendations-v1. Paid evaluations remain disabled. The July 2 baseline date has not been renewed by this documentation review.

Scruuge’s current tier ladder.

These are the representative models in the calculator baseline. The ordering scores are heuristic estimates, not measured accuracy or a live benchmark ranking. Recommendation baseline: 2026-07-02; comparative quality review is pending. Prices are $/million tokens (input / output). Read the October 14 Cost Watch for current scoped price checks and worked examples.

List prices last verified 2026-10-14 — age not checked

The current prices need a fresh check. Last harvest: 2026-10-14. Treat the figures as directional until the check is complete.

TierRepresentative modelIn / Out ($/1M)Heuristic ordering
FrontierBest quality, hardest work onlyClaude Opus 4.8$5 / $2597
PremiumNear-frontier, premium-pricedClaude Sonnet 4.6$3 / $1592
StrongHigh quality at a fraction of frontierGPT-5.6 Sol$2 / $1088
EfficientGood quality, great priceDeepSeek V3.2$0.259 / $0.882
BudgetLowest cost, adequate qualityQwen3.7 Flash$0.03 / $0.1376

A price refresh does not change the recommendation review date or prove a model is equally capable. New listings are candidates for review. Retaining an older baseline is not a finding that it beats a newer model.

Scruuge’s TLDR

A model isn’t “good” or “bad” — it’s a point on seven axes. Match the axes to your task and you get a useful shortlist to test. The bill still needs your actual usage and acceptance criteria.

Now put it to work.

You know what separates them — the calculator estimates costs and suggests a tier to test in two minutes, and the Cost Engineering Playbook shows you how to route between them.